Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka has emerged as the strongest opposition
presidential contender ahead of Kenya’s 2027 General Election, with a new poll giving him the clearest numerical claim to lead a coalition against President William Ruto.
The Swiss Poll survey, conducted between July 25 and August 6, puts Kalonzo at 22 per cent nationally, second only to President Ruto at 31 per cent.
Edwin Sifuna follows at 13 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 11 per cent and Rigathi Gachagua at six per cent, while 16 per cent` of voters remain undecided.
Kalonzo’s strongest rise comes among voters who identify as anti-Ruto. Of the respondents in this category, 41 per cent prefer him as the opposition presidential candidate, ahead of Sifuna at 26 per cent, Matiang’i at 16 per cent and Gachagua at nine per cent.
The findings could strengthen Kalonzo’s hand in the increasingly competitive negotiations over who should lead the opposition into the 2027 contest.
The poll further suggests that a coalition built around Kalonzo could attract significant support if the opposition parties manage to agree on a common ticket.
The most popular combination tested was Kalonzo as President, Sifuna as Deputy President and Matiang’i as Chief Cabinet Secretary, attracting 44 per cent support, more than twice the 19 per cent recorded by a Sifuna-Kalonzo-Matiang’i combination.
However, the survey also exposes a major challenge for Kalonzo — winning over younger voters.
While Kalonzo has relatively stronger support among older age groups, Sifuna dominates among younger voters. The poll shows Sifuna’s support at 23 per cent among voters aged 18–24 and 35 per cent among those aged 25–34, compared with Kalonzo’s 11 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.
The poll says 58 per cent of Sifuna’s supporters are aged between 18 and 35, positioning the ODM Secretary-General as a critical player in the opposition’s efforts to mobilize the emerging youth vote.
With 16 per cent of voters still undecided, the findings suggest the race remains fluid and that coalition-building could prove decisive.
Further, the poll reveals that Kalonzo is currently the best-positioned opposition candidate, based on his national support, his lead among anti-Ruto voters, and the popularity of his preferred coalition configuration.
